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Friday Afternoon Severe Weather Update

Friday Afternoon Severe Weather Update

The threat for severe weather this weekend looks possible mainly in a time frame of early Sunday morning. I am still thinking that the threat is a very marginal threat, but there is the threat for some very strong winds with some of these storms that roll into the state. Here is the set up:

There is a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow across the Ark La Tex region and those storms will form into a line that will head in this direction late tomorrow night. It will be a large squall line that will move through Alabama late tomorrow night. Once it comes into NW Georgia early Sunday morning the actual cold front will start to weaken  and slow down as the upper energy moves towards the NE. It will be a that point in time that there will be a small window between around 4-8am in an area north of I20 where some of these storms could produce some strong winds up to and around 50mph. I am not expecting tornadoes at this point in time.

Atlanta Weather | Winter Begins Saturday

Atlanta Weather | Winter Begins Saturday

This Saturday will be the shortest day of the year, or what we refer to as the Winter solstice. The sun will stop moving southward, pause, and then start moving northward. This pause is called the "solstice," from the Latin words "sol" for "sun" and "sisto" for "stop." 

 

The winter solstice happens because the Earth does not spin upright, but on an axis 23.5 degrees from vertical. As the Earth orbits the sun, it reaches the moment of winter solstice when the North Pole is tilted furthest from the sun, making it the shortest day of the year
 

 

Usually, the winter solstice occurs on December 21, but that can shift for the same reasons we have leap years: the Earth takes 365.25 days to orbit the sun, but the Gregorian calendar has only 365 days so each year the solstice is pushed back by around six hours. 
 

11pm Severe Weather Discussion for the Weekend

11pm Severe Weather Discussion for the Weekend

I continue to monitor the situation for Sunday and with every model run the threat for severe weather goes down. Here is the latest:

The upper energy is now over land in SoCal so the models are able to initialize better, the latest NAM is taking all the upper energy and shearing it apart. What this means is that instead of it staying round and spinning, it flattens out and gets absorbed into the flow. This means that the system totally loses almost all of its energy and just brings a large part of the country just strong storms and heavy rain.

For us, the system has sped up so the line of storms will come through early morning on Sunday when there is almost no instability. We will have storms, but they will be just boomers and I don't think we see anything at all severe.

As of right now I am giving this a 1 on a scale of 1-10.

An Update on the Severe Threat This Weekend

An Update on the Severe Threat This Weekend

To sum it up in one sentence..... The severe threat for this weekend looks very minimal for us! With that said, here is why I am thinking the threat is minimal:

Taking a look at the 500 heights below you will see what I like to call a big old bowling ball low in New Mexico  that would typically come out and create all kinds of severe weather. Now there will be severe weather in parts of AR, OK, and TX on Saturday, but as that big low comes out something weird happens, It phases with a northern vort max and shears it out. In other words that bowling ball becomes a pancake as it come out of Texas, so it essentially loses all of its punch. So now the storms that will be coming in this direction late Saturday night will be driven by surface features, not upper level features. 

New Crater on The Moon

New Crater on The Moon

Earlier this year the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter captured the largest meteor to strike the surface of the Moon in the  8 year history! Scientists were pouring over data from the LRO when they noticed a massive burst of light on March 17th. They went back and noticed that it was a meteor that was the size of a boulder and was traveling at an astounding 59,000mph!!! The explosion was as bright as a magnitude 4 star and the impact crater that it made was the size of half a football field.

Watching for the Risk of Severe Weather Here This Weekend

Watching for the Risk of Severe Weather Here This Weekend

As of right now we are not in an official risk for severe weather on Sunday. But if there is a day to watch, that one is it. From what you can see above, this is the risk area for Saturday and from everything I have looked at, there could potentially be a nasty outbreak with some tornadoes in AR, MS, TN, and far NW AL late Saturday night.

What does this mean for Us?

As of right now it appears that there will be a line of storms that will move into the NW section of the state Sunday afternoon. There will be plenty of instability, but as for shear, it should become much less as the main line moves through. This means that we will most likely have a broken line of storms that will move in late Sunday afternoon and push through the metro area Sunday night. At this point in time I am not thinking we will see tornadoes, but straight line winds will be a good possibility especially since the winds at around 5,000 feet will be blowing at around 70knots!

Atlanta Weather | Weather Changing

Atlanta Weather | Weather Changing

As you are getting your last minute shopping in, try to pay attention to the forecast over the next couple of days, because there will be some changes.

Today: A little cooler this afternoon as a weak cold front has passed through the area. There will still be mostly sunny skies, but temps will be in the low 50s.

Thursday: High pressure will move east bring us a southerly flow and warmer temps. Staring Thursday  temps will be back in the 60s. Enjoy the sunshine, because clouds will start moving in late.

Friday: Look for mostly cloudy skies. Only a slight chance for showers. Temperatures will be in the low 60s.
Better chance for rain over the weekend.