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11pm Severe Weather Update, New Model Data is Out | Weather

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11pm Severe Weather Update, New Model Data is Out
11pm Severe Weather Update, New Model Data is Out

This is just a real quick update to the blog I had out earlier:

The latest NAM is in and it is again slowing this system just a bit. For right now I am still going to go with the update that I had earlier for the timing which is noted below. The NAM keeps it a severe limits with damaging winds being the main threat.

RPM Model

The latest forecast track, or RPM model, is slowing the system down just a touch and is blowing up the line of storms in Alabama around 3-4pm. Again this will be an ever changing forecast over the next few days, Here is the way I am still thinking how it will take shape.

Storms fire in Alabama and quickly go severe and start moving towards N Georgia. I think they get to the border around 6pm and move into the region between 6-8. With all the latest data that is coming it looks like they will be severe as they move through the region, and into the metro. I am still thinking damaging winds and hail, but can't rule out tornadoes for Thursday afternoon as well. 

Take a look at the latest RMP, the newest one will be in for the 11pm news and I will have another blog out by then as well.


My Thoughts

On a scale of 1-10 for severe threat for Thursday afternoon I am upping it to around a 3 to 4. I will most likely be upping it more with more model data.

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