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Update to the Winter Weather Chances | Weather

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Update to the Winter Weather Chances
Update to the Winter Weather Chances

As another meteorologist friend said earlier today, this cold core low that is coming out is a pain in the rear to forecast for snow because the process that goes into creating the snow is very misunderstood by the models. This will be an interesting 36 hours for sure

The image you are looking at above is the projected snowfall from the NAM (North American Model) 4km which is a high resolution model that has very tight grid spacing. In english that means that the computer model takes its initial readings every 4km which is very close together. Since the upper low is now coming out into Texas the models are getting a better handle on it and we are seeing that the cold core is colder than the models predicted for this time period. That means that it will be colder tomorrow as well and the models are starting to show that for the forecasted time period.

Take a look at the 2 images below. The first one is from 4pm tomorrow and the second one is for 7 pm tomorrow afternoon. The NAM 4km is starting to indicate that there will be snow in the area tomorrow as well as most of the models. It is starting to look more likely than not that parts of N Georgia will see snow tomorrow, BUT, my forecast has not changed much:


Where and when I am Looking At

The graphic is below to illustrate where I think the winter weather will be. First of all this system will start out late Wednesday night as a heavy rain producer that will last through the day on Thursday. Then as the upper level winds start to change and the cold air at the mid and upper levels starts to move in, that is when we will start to see the change over to a winter mix. This should start to happen around 1-3pm on Thursday. As far as locations, here is what I am thinking:

Metro Counties: A winter mix with no accumulations

North Metro Counties: (Bartow, Floyd, Godron, Pickens, Dawson, Fannin, Gilmer) Could see a dusting to a bit more on the grassy surfaces, no travel problems.

North Georgia Mountains: I think there is a good chance that by the time this system is done and gone the mountains could see around 1-2 inches!!

Bottom Line

I really don't think I will be changing this forecast much, but this is a very dynamic system and as it starts to get closer to the area I will have a much better idea what it will be doing. Right now I am giving this a 4 on a scale of 1-10 for snow accumulating up north.

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