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Big Pattern Change Coming Next Week! | Weather

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Big Pattern Change Coming Next Week!
Weather
Big Pattern Change Coming Next Week!

 

So it looks like we are going to see a major shift in the pattern early next week and get our first taste of Canadian air! Before we get into the specifics of what is going to happen and why, lets first talk about why we have been so warm lately! For this forecast I am going to be focusing on the Pacific as we have been heavily influenced in the US by what has been happening of the southern coast of Alaska!! As massive low has essentially been sitting there for the last 3 weeks, that is going to change!

Our Recent Pattern

For the purpose of this discussion I will try to be as literal as possible for all the new readers of the blog as we are getting daily (THANK YOU!!!!!). Image #1 and #2 down below are what is going at the upper levels right now, or as of about 6am today. That big nasty low is still spinning off the coast of Canada and Alaska which continues to keep that part of the world in a serious cold air entrenching! What that has done for the last few weeks is kept us in that zonal flow (east to west jet pattern) and that has firmly locked the cold air well to our north. Since November 15th we have averaged about 62-67 degrees every day which is well above the average, before that we were seeing highs in the mid and lower 50's as we were in a pattern similar to what we are going into.

Why The Change in Pattern??

I am not sure why the pattern finally unlocks.... Some of in the meteorological community say it is something that happens at the surface, some say it is at the upper levels, regardless something happens in the pacific to make that persistent low finally break loose and gets replaced by a large Pacific high!! Look at image #3 and you will see the forecast for the upper levels and how that affects the large scale pattern!! We get back to the northerly jet stream flow that will tap into that very cold air in Canada and bring it down in this direction! Both the GFS and the EURO are going with this major pattern change next week!

How Cold Will It Get??

Check out the temperature anomalies down below in image #4-#6!! We are going to be around 10-20 degrees below normal early next week in both computer models. What this means is that we are going to go from seeing highs in the lower 70's over the last few days, to a good chance of seeing highs in the 40's in the metro!! As of right now I am forecasting the coldest morning so far this winter to be next Wednesday with temps getting into the 20's!!!

This is still a bit out but my confidence is getting higher now that both computer models are on board with the change in the pattern. The latest NAO (see image #7) shows the ensembles all pointing in the negative direction which means a major cold snap for the eastern 2/3 of the US!!

Total Opposite of the CPC!!

I am going totally opposite of what the CPC is saying and I can't figure out why?? Check out image #8 below, they are saying that it is going to be warmer than normal in the eastern 1/3 of the US! I guess we will see who is right next week!!

Severe Weather Chances

AS of right NOW as the upper wave comes in from the NW our rain chances will be high, but it appears that our severe weather chances will be low! There will just not be enough warm air to really concern me! I will keep you posted!

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