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When is Our Next Cold Blast?? | Weather

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When is Our Next Cold Blast??
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When is Our Next Cold Blast??

Last week I released my forecast for what I think we will see in terms of winter weather in N Georgia. I you haven't read it here is it: 

MY WINTER 2012/2013 FORECAST

Over the next week we are going to go through a bit of a warming trend, as a matter of fact we are going to be heading into the lower 70's for parts of N Georgia by next Monday. The main reason for that lies again in the North Atlantic and the North Atlantic Oscillation that really determines the weather for the eastern US for the winter months. 

The Next 7 Days

The big warming trend we are going to see is evident in both the GFS and EURO, for this blog I will focus on the GFS. The key thing in the NAO is the upper patterns in the N Atlantic. So far this November we have been on a negative flip which means that the upper pattern in the N Atlantic has been a ridge, this creates a dip in the jet stream in the eastern US... Over the next 7 days the ridge out in the N Atlantic breaks down and allows a ridge to develop in the central and eastern US. Check out the temperature anomalies (departure from normal)  that are in the middle of the country by next Monday!! There are some areas of the central and eastern US that have temps getting up to the 15-25 degrees above the norm, there could be some record highs next week in the Ohio valley area! You can also see the NAO in the forecast go to the positive side late this week..... then things change!!!

Late Next Week

What goes up must come down is what I always say in the world of weather! it appears that the very short lived NAO on the positive side will flip back to the negative side mid to late next week. This makes sense since persistence is a big part of the forecast when going long range. Once this thing flips a lot of VERY COLD  air that will start building into parts of Canada (the map you see below is the departure from normal, notice that there are parts of Canada and the N Plains that are near 40 degrees below the norm!!!) will start to slip down into the US. Just take a look at the NAO and then the ridge that redevelops at the upper levels in the N Atlantic mid to late next week! This is when I think we will again see a major shift in the pattern and return to very cold temps for late next week! When I say cold, I am not talking about the type of cold air they will see up north, but by the end of next week we could be talking about highs in the 40's!

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