Detailed Look at Our Severe Weather Chances Tomorrow | Weather

The Threat For Severe Tomorrow

Tomorrow a potent upper level system from Texas will swing in this direction and increase the chance of severe weather tomorow afternoon. This is the setup:

Looking down below all the images you see are from 2pm tomorrow afternoon when we are going to start to see the best chances start for severe weather. As this disturbance moves closer to us a stong jet stream is going to develop to our NW, you can see this below in the area that I have highlighted. What this does is creates somewhat of a vacuum at the upper levels that will help to enhance the updratfs in the storms. 

A warm front will move through the N Georgia area later tonight which will help to increase our temps tomorrow as well as increase the instability in the atmosphere. From the colorful image below you can see the increase in the instability around 2pm tomorrow, this is also apparent in what is called the sounding that I have below as well. the space you see between the line to the left and the one to the right is also a sign of instability. The larger that area is the more bouyant the air is tomorrow and thus the more instability we will have.

We are also going to have a decent amount of shear in the atmosphere tomorrow. Anytime you get a helicity value around 200 that is a sign of a lot of twist in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tomorrow afternoon they are approaching 200. You can also see that below.

The latest NAM (north american model) has a line of storms developing around 2pm out west and heading in this direction.. Some of these will have the potential to become severe.

My Thoughts

I am not 100% sold on a major risk tomorrow based on the direction that this upper system is coming from. Now, to the NW of the metro area we have a better chance of seeing tornadoes, I give NW Georgia about a 4 on a scale from 1-10 for wind and isolated tornadoes. In order for us to have tornadoes in the metro area tomorrow we will have to have a lot of warmth, we will need to be in the upper 70s and even lower 80s tomorrow around 2pm. And the upper low will have to move a bit closer to us, right now it is on track to give NW Georgia and SE Tennessee a good chance of severe weather. Because of these factors I am sticking with my previous thoughts and giving it a 3 on a scale from 1-10.

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