Severe Risk Going Up, Heavy Rain Tonight in N Georgia | Weather
The much advertised heavy rain for parts of N Georgia is on its way and it looks like it will be moving in later tonight! The risk for severe weather is going up as well as we have a lot of unstable air and a pretty good amount of spin as this upper level system heads in this direction.
Severe Weather Risk
Our chance of severe weather has gone up as the system has a lot of spin with it, and there is a lot of instability building as this upper system gets closer to us. The main threat later tonight will be isolated damaging wind gusts and heavy rain but we can't not rule out an isolated tornado. As you can see from the SPC most of West N Georgia are in the 5% chance of brief tornadoes so we will need to watch carefully. I think the best chance for any isolated tornadoes would actually by in far N Georgia along the front that is parked up there.
Take a look at the water vapor image below and you will see a very classic comma shaped system in parts of Texas! Another good way of looking at this system is the 500mb vorticity, just another fancy way of saying upper level spin. This is the upper system that was hanging out in Texas the last few days and it is finally moving out into the SE US. Ahead of this system the highest precipitable water values are in Alabama but are forecasted to increase through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. The focus for the heaviest of rain is a stationary front to the north that runs from around Birmingham to Dalton county to Around Fanin and Union counties. As the energy pushes up all that moisture from the Gulf up along that front AND the mountains a lot of rain is going to fall.
Heavy Rain Forecast
Tonight as that system starts to pull out tonight we will see wave after wave of rain head in this direction, most of the heaviest will be to our north in parts of TN and NC, but a lot of the northern counties will see 2-3"+ of rain. All of this initial rain that will be heading into N Georgia tonight and tomorrow morning will be from the system in the Gulf, but the second wave of rain comes tomorrow as the cold front from up north heads in this direction! All the moisture that is going to be hanging around from the gulf system will begin to get squeezed out by the cold front that is coming in late in the day tomorrow from Canada! Timing on the front is around 3-5pm tomorrow night and you will feel the difference by later tomorrow evening as that drier air builds in.
The Big Cool Down
Temps Wednesday will slip back into the lower 70's for afternoon highs with lows falling off into the mid and lower 50's for Thursday morning! Coldest morning in the metro area since April of last spring! There is a good chance we will see another shot of cooler air come in here this weekend! Look at the temperature anomalies for Sunday morning down below!!
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