The Remnants of Isaac Could Reform in the Gulf | Weather

The Synopsis

AS of the latest update from the NHC we are looking at a 40% chance of tropical development in the Gulf from what we all used to know as Isaac... Yes, I know that sounds strange but once a tropical system loses all of its characteristics over land, then reforms into a tropical system it gets a totally new name.. This one would be known as Nadine or the "Tropical System Formerly Known as Isaac"... Actually just Nadine. What has happened is that the system got caught up in the jet stream flow and moved over Alabama yesterday, producing some serious flooding in the western sections of the state. That disturbance has moved back out into open waters and is beginning to feed off the warm Gulf waters. Right now the pressure is falling off just a bit and winds are beginning to pick up a bit across the gulf region from the MS coast to the FL panhandle. There is also a lot of rain associated with this tropical disturbance in the same locations.

The Forecast

My current thinking on this thing is not that urgent. First of all it needs high pressure at the upper levels for development to intensity, right now it has an upper low that is forecasted to slowly weaken, but still remain overhead. With that in mind even though the surface features could start to look better I don't think this system will have the necessary time to develop into anything major, might not even get to tropical storm status. If you look below at all the spaghetti models you will see one consistent trend, the system moves to the SW, then giddy ups across the FL Panhandle then out to sea. That brings in the timing issue, there is a strong fold front that is heading in this direction that will arrive this weekend. All the mid and upper level winds ahead of it are forecasted to start increasing out of the SW starting on Friday. This will pick up whatever is down there and move it out, hopefully!!! I will have another update on this "System" and the big cool down tonight at 6pm!

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