New Tornado Watch for all of N Alabama | Weather
As you can see there is a tornado watch to our west, and our NW through 9pm for all of N Alabama and most of central Tennessee. Suffice to say that as we progress through the evening we will most likely have a tornado watch in effect for parts of N Georgia by later tonight. This is just an assumption on my part, but give the situation that has happened in the Midwest today we will most likely have some type watch in place by dark.
The risk area has been expanded to the SW into most of AL and to the NE into eastern KY. Nothing has changed for N Georgia wit the exception of the 15% tornado percentage has been brought down into Walker, Dade, and Catoossa counties. Inside the moderate there is a pretty good chance that there will be some more tornadoes later today into the evening hours, especially in N Alabama, S central Tennessee and parts of SE Kentucky. For NW Georgia since we are on the fringe of the risk area lour chance is just a bit lower, still there is a good chance we could see some severe storms capable of producing tornadoes in the NW section of the state in those three counties..
There area I am most concerned about right now is S TN and N Alabama where the three things needed for severe weather are occurring in the exact same area at the exact same time. Right now there is plenty of instability, plenty of helicity, and a lifting mechanism. You can see all of those down below, the one you might not have seen before is the moisture convergence image, the third one of the analysis images. When you get into the now cast situation like we are now, we don't really look at models anymore, rather we look at there areas that have the highest potential of convection occurring. That is where those three indicies are occurring simultaneously which is in N AL and S TN.
For N Georgia
We are ok for now, but I am still looking at a 7-9pm time frame for storms to move into the NW and then around 10-11 for the rest of N GA. I give it a 5/6 on a scale of 1-10 for far NW Georgia and a 4/5 for N Central Georgia north of Cherokee, Forsyth, and Hall counties.
Follow on facebook: Mike Francis
and on Twitter: @MikeFrancisWX