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Monitoring Storm Threat for Christmas Night | News

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Monitoring Storm Threat for Christmas Night
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Monitoring Storm Threat for Christmas Night

We continue to monitor a developing storm system that will affect us Christmas night into Wednesday morning.  My earlier blogs talked about all of the ingredients that we are watching with this.  The map above shows a "hatched" area from the Storm Prediction Center over Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and SW Alabama.  That is the area that has the highest instability and shear.  These are the areas most likely to see severe weather.

If you look to the north and east, the risk area extends into Atlanta.  However, the likelyhood of severe gets a little smaller.  At this glance, it looks as if the strongest storms would be south and west of us.  As new computer models are coming in, we are seeing some indicators that some of this instability and shear would extend farther to the north.  That's why we need to keep a close eye on this.  Each run changes the scenario slightly.

The way I see it now, I expect to see some thunderstorms starting on Christmas night into the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.  These storms should weaken a little as they leave Alabama and move into Georgia.  If we continue to get some of these indicators of the instability and shear moving farther north, we will have to start planning on a higher potential of severe storms for us.

Even though it's Christmas, our entire Weather Information Zone team will be on top of this system as it comes in.  We will keep you updated on the blog, on Facebook and Twitter, and on 11Alive News.

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