TS Debby's Track Uncertain-Warnings Extended to Florida Panhandle | News
Tropical storm Debby continues to sit and spin in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm warnings have been expanded to include the Alabama coast and Florida panhandle. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60mph. It is slowly moving to the north at 3mph.
This is a very difficult storm to forecast. The official track from the NHC pushes this storm to the west toward Texas. It also has it strengthening to hurricane status by Tuesday. This forecast track is not set in stone though. Many of the models push this to the northern Gulf coast, others to the western Florida coast.
There is a battle as to what is going to guide it. If the high to the north is the main guide, the clockwise flow around that would push it to Texas. If the trough in the middle of the country takes over, then it would move more to the north or east. Everyone on the Gulf coast needs to watch this closely. It is too early to tell whether or not we will have any effects from this storm.
It will be hot again today with a high in the low 90s. Only a slight chance of an isolated late afternoon or early evening shower.
Here's the latest advisory from the NHC:
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.