The latest model run are in and I have been analyzing them for a bit now. I have come to the conclusion that my forecast remains the exact same as it was earlier this morning. The difference with the models is the timing on the northern disturbance coming in about 2 hours behind what the morning runs had. The timing on that one arriving will determine exactly when we see the flurries.
It is what I like to call the kicker in the mix, in other words it is the cold punch that will drop the mid level temps far enough for snow. It is also the ingredient that will create a tremendous amount of lift ahead of it. In other words we won't see snow until that northern kick makes it here which will be between 5 and 7am. So yes, the timing is just a bit slower that I previously thought.