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Severe Weather Update | 9:45pm Update

Severe Weather Update | 9:45pm Update

Storms continue to move in from the NW tonight, but the threat for severe appears to be diminishing. If you look at the image below you can see that the instability axis is well to  the south and that is where it will stay. The threat for tornadoes tonight is non existent, even the threat for damaging winds is gone as well. The showers that are to our north will scoot just to the north of the metro area, mainly staying north of Cobb, Fulton and Gwinett. The only threat tonight will be lightning and a bit of rain. \

On a scale of 1-10 tonight I give it a 1.

Severe Weather Webcast

New Area of Concern for Severe Weather

New Area of Concern for Severe Weather

The area that is circled in orange is the new area the storms prediction center is watching carefully for a watch. Instability levels of around 750 j/kg are moving into the area ahead of the line of storms that is developing in AL. They will continue to strengthen as they move east at around 30mph and move into a strongly sheared environment. This means that I think that the watch that will come out might be a tornado watch. Metro Atlanta as of right now will not be in the watch. 

Severe Storms Developing in AL and TN | Update

Severe Storms Developing in AL and TN | Update

We are continuing to watch strong to severe t-storms developing in N Central AL and S TN that are severe. The main threat appears to be wind at this time as they track towards W N Georgia. As of right now there are no watches posted.

We will keep you updated.

Severe Weather Update | Watch Likely N Georgia

Severe Weather Update | Watch Likely N Georgia

The SPC is monitoring an area covering N ALabama, S Tennennessee and a lot of N Georgia. If there is a watch issued it will most likely be a tornado watch and it will most likely be issued by 6pm tonight.

The Setup

There is a distinct boundary that is moving across the Al TN border right now in the form of a warm front. Instability in AL is increasing and with the SW flow at the surface it is being transported into that area. At the same time there is a pretty stong impulse of energy seen on the water vapor imagery that is moving in from AR. These three things (the warm ftonr, the instability, and the upper wave) will start coming together around 7pm later tonight. Storms are expected to fire along the warm front and intensify rapidly as they head east at around 30mph. Some of these storms will move into N Georgia later tonight and could produce winds and hail, can't rule out a tornado even though they are not likely. We will continue to monitor.

Severe Storms Likely Late Today in far N Georgia

Severe Storms Likely Late Today in far N Georgia

The main threat from storms that will develop later this afternoon in TN will eventually spread into the northern 3 rows of counties in N Georgia around 7-9pm tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, although an isolated tornado is not out of the question, highly unlikely, but can't rule it out 100% 

Discussion

A wave of energy is rotating around the main trough that is set up over the mid section of the country. That will interact with some warmth and moisture later this evening in TN. As this wave moves in it will spark some storms that will interact with a boundary up north from storms that moved through overnight. Some of those storms will move into N Georgia later tonight and could be severe.

The threat for metro Atlanta appears to be very low at this time, but we will continue to watch.

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Possible Severe Weather in N Georgia Later Today

Possible Severe Weather in N Georgia Later Today

Synopsis

As of right now there is a cluster of showers moving across TN. This wave will continue to move towards the east and lay out a small boundary of cooler air that will slowly sag into N Georgia throughout the afternoon. As we go throughout the day moisture from the Gulf will continue to move into the state, at the same time the air will begin to heat up once we start to clear out. We should be sunny by later on this morning, all we have is just a bit of morning low clouds. At the same time all this is going on there will be a disturbance that rounds the base of the long wave already in place and rotate out later today. This will in turn pop some t-storms that should have enough instability to become severe with wind and hail the main threat. I can't rule out an isolated tornado, but really the main threat will be in the form of wind and hail. 

Location and Timing