The Situation

It has been a rough morning for parts of Alabama with reports of a long tracked tornado hitting parts of Huntsville hard.... This was all along a retreating warm front that we talked about yesterday. This afternoon that warm front will have moved through all of N GA and will set the stage for later tonight. Storms are currently forming along a cold front in IL, KY, TN, and MO... This is the front that is heading towards our state. All of N GA is under a moderate risk as you can see below. All of the metro area is under a 10% chance of a tornado happening within a 25 mile point, with most of it under a 15% chance. Those are high probabilities folks..... The atmosphere will be condusive for tornadoes across parts of N Georgia later tonight into tomorrow morning. Strong Damaging winds are also possible as well as large hail. Again this is a serious situation for N Georgia later tonight.

Timing

We will keep the chance for showers in the forecast through the rest of the afternoon. A cold front is forecast to move into the area by the evening, bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Some of the T-Storms could produce damaging winds, hail, and frequent lightning. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. The storm prediction center has placed the NW corner of the state in the moderate risk and has now been expanded south to included the North Metro area.  There will be the potential for hail, strong winds and isolated tornados. The threat will last through Saturday morning.

Long Term:

   Skies should clear by Saturday mid-morning, but we will cool down behind the front. Temps on Saturday will  in the low 60s. Remains dry over the weekend and the beginning of next week.

From the NWS

The image you see above is a new product the NWS is testing, it is called the thunderstorm percentage map... Pretty simple huh? The darker the orange gets the better of a chance of convective activity there is. Notice tomorrow the N TN and S KY area are pretty much in the 100% category..  We fall in the 70% category, but notice how the further south you go from the metro area the less the chance you have to see t-storms.. Cool huh? This is combining several factors: moisture, instability, lift, and a few other things.

Significant Tornado Parameter